Sunday, July 12, 2015

Is it time to "go for the jugular"?

Soros taught Druckenmiller that what matters is not how often you are right, but how much you make when you are right. Given that shares of iron ore miners (such as Vale) have been falling alongside iron ore prices amidst increasing supply (and flat demand); perhaps it is almost time for crisis-mode for these share?

The catalyst here? Bans on selling. China has essentially restricted liquidity of the largest holders of shares when liquidity has become paramount.  The United States & other others instituted short selling bans that did not help in restoring confidence - now the Chinese government has learned the wrong lesson and gone all-in. If there is no way to hedge counterparty risk (cds/bond market is far smaller in China), what can investors and indeed banks do? Sell everything else - including commodities such as iron ore.

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