Sunday, June 28, 2015

Dividends don't matter (that much)

One popular investment strategy is income investing - investing in stocks that pay a steady stream of (growing) dividends. This way, you are most likely to get some money back after investing. 

More generally, a popular argument to investing in a particular security is that it has a high dividend, etc.; but why should this matter? If the goal is maximum total return while minimizing risk (whether permanent loss or even price fluctuations), why should getting back money so quickly be a priority?

There are a few reasons that people put forward, but I don't think they are as straightforward as they might seem.

1) Stable companies have good dividend histories. Dividends are a proxy for well-run businesses with good prospects; if that is the case, why not focus on the business value in the first place? 

2) Want income for daily needs. Dividends are not guaranteed, and for any specific security can vary greatly by year; in fact, those securities with the highest dividends frequently lose prinicpal (see mortgage reits in the recent year). Once again, business value (i.e. future earnings prospects of the company) matter most.


Furthermore, dividends are taxed at least 15%+ while sales of stock (depending on tax basis) may be considerably less. 

3) Companies don't have better use for the capital and frequently misuse it, so better to give money back to shareholders. It is worth it to invest in companies that are poor capital allocators? 


More generally, whether it is distributed as dividends or reinvested in the business, the cash is there. If many companies can invest it in their business at their return on equity (mostly 10%+), does it make sense to withdraw it unless you need it? Even so, outright sales are typically more tax-efficient.


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