Thursday, October 3, 2013

Macro as an opportunity - HLSS, IBTX

Many have lamented the dominance of macro-events in markets. From 2008's soul-crushing housing-driven swings in the market to 2011's euro-crisis dips, financial journalists and some money managers bring up the difficulty of investing when all stocks move up/down together. This, however, assumes that daily market moves are the main risk to investing, i.e. seeing the market drop 5% in a week is painful. This may indeed be true emotionally when most judge performance on a daily/monthly/quarterly basis.

What if we instead see the stock market as simply a marketplace for buying companies? Indeed, what if macro drawdowns are just Mr. Market instituting a fire-sale of all items? A heat-wave inside Target may make the dairy products go bad, but how about the clothes?

Few would believe that all companies are equally affected by the government shutdown, so given any (fear-driven) corrections in the market as a whole, I'd actually welcome them as opportunities to buy unjustly affected companies.

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Actions speak louder than words, though, so I am therefore taking this opportunity to buy more of HLSS, IBTX and UHAL, the first two of which I plan to write more of.


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