Monday, March 18, 2013

Cyprus - When Politics & Economics Collide

With the n-th iteration of Euro-crisis now including taxes on depositors, felt it good to re-link an old video of Larry Summers:




While events are changing by the hour and so the agreement may be revised to be less severe, I can't help but believe that the the EU continues to make the same mistakes by valuing political decisions over the economics. This is a structural and indeed a behavioral/psychological issue, as having only a common currency benefits both sides (Germany with competitive exports, Greece with lower debt rates pre-crisis) but only if the former is willing to fully backstop the latter and if it truly leads to fiscal union (the original goal, I believe?).

In my opinion, this is exactly the same as 1992 and the exchange-rate-mechanism crisis, except that there is no way out (devaluation). Great Britain was weak economically but Germany did not want even the thought of inflation/money printing, pushing Britain into a recession. Had it not devalued, it would have been in for a deflationary/recessionary spiral - just like Spain/Italy/other PIIGS. After all, if there ~7% less money in the banking system as yesterday, it is not deflation? Devaluation is the normal market process, but because of structural limitations (spain euro = italy euro), there is no way to soften the blow. In other words, Europe is a man swimming with an anvil attached.

As a result, I don't think it's easy to say "buy Europe, it's cheap" and believe that bottom-pickers may be in for a tough struggle.

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