Sunday, January 27, 2013

Insiders can't get enough of mortgage REITs

In the continuing search for new ideas, I've stumbled onto an industry-wide insider buying of mortgage REITs (AGNC, TWO, WMC, AMTG). These companies, which borrow short term to buy long term mortgage-backed securities, are in effect leveraged mortgage lenders/banks. They are an implicit bet on the steepness of the yield curve, namely that short term rates (<1 yr) remain (much) lower than long term (mortgage) rates (5 yr+).

Such companies have existed since 2009 or earlier and more have since spun-off and/or gone public in recent years. They have fantastic yields (in 2010, AGNC was yielding 20%+, 16%). In the search for yield, they are near the top in outright securities that retail investors can buy. This is of course not without danger, as seen near last year's rise and fall with the announcement of QE3:




The prevalent fear is that QE3+ will crowd out private investors and reduce the spread above (and therefore dividend). The subsequent fall, however, has given way to mass insider buying.


Perhaps with QE 3+ already announced, the maximum effective of the fed has already been discounted and it only leaves the spread to remain wide? Indeed, wouldn't any Fed unwind start with QE reduction, allowing long term rates to rise before short term?

Of course, the implied leverage, funding requirements are just a few of the risks that can weaken this investment. What do you guys think?

Disclosure: long AGNC, TWO, WMC, AMTG

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