Tuesday, October 16, 2012

On shorting frauds (QIHU, GMCR)

Closed two shorts today - GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roasters) and QIHU (Qihoo 360). In both cases, I believe that revenues and cash on balance sheet are vastly overstated; indeed, I believe management has engaged in year-long fabrications in order to inflate their stock prices.

Why have I closed such shorts then? Because 1) frauds without hard catalysts are difficult to time, even harder with 20%+ borrow rates (i.e. I need to make 20%+ a year just to breakeven)

I've heard from some that fraud is the pinnacle of shorting - from this experience, I would add that fraud with hard catalyst (i.e. running out of cash, share lockup expiration) in a difficult and highly transparent industry is the pinnacle.

A tough short:

 There are simply easier shorts, in my opinion (FB, ZNGA, GRPN, SPLK).

-Stanley

*Disclosure: am short FB, ZNGA, GRPN, SPLK

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