Guest Post - RIMM

Marshall Brandt, a friend of mine, have been discussing RIMM - we have opposing views, but I do feel like the discussion is worth having. His views are below:

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Whether RIM is able to ever rise to the point that it can challenge AAPL or GOOG remains to be seen. Whether it needs to, however, for the stock to double, or triple, is also not known, but signs point to yes the more we know about blackberry 10.

In 99% of occaisions, you don't want to be long a stock that isn't growing--or lacks the perception of growth. That 1% is reserved for companies in extremis, that are down 90% or more--that have been written off for dead. Think, for example, of the banks in winter 09--they were pricing in more than zero growth--they were pricing in death. They didn't die, and the stocks, many of them, doubled or tripled.

Whether RIM makes it back is an unanswered question, but the reasons it has been pronunced dead are questionable.

A lack of apps.

Anyone wanting to know why apps aren't the issue need do only one thing--get out a piece of paper and write down every app you want for your smart phone. Then add any app you think you might ever want. Then add any app you think people you know might want. Can you get to 100 let alone 1,000, let alone 700,000 that aapl offers? Its not realistic to think that there's millions of people ditching blackberry because they wanted some spanish to swahili app.

Moreover, android apps, of which there are 600,000 to ios 700,000, are compatible with blackberry 10. So it appears you can get that swahili app after all.

VHS vs Beta

Some even RIM enthusiasts say this is like vhs vs. betamax. This analogy doesn't add up. If you held on to your beta after every local store adopted vhs, then you simply couldn't watch anything. In contrast, rim still does basically what you wanted your smart phone for--emailing and calling people.

Is there anything andriod can do that blackberry 10 cannot?

No. Now that blackberry has a competent browser, anything android does can be done on blackberry--and from videos on blackberry 10, it appears blackberry can be lots easier to use. See (find vid link)

Is there anything blackberry 10 can do that android cannot?

Yes. Its the most secure messaging system. IT professionals still love the BES. It seems to offer a new 

Why did people ditch RIM?

Though lack of innovation is often cited, its not so much RIM failed to innovate, they just assumed that their customers dindnt actually want to surf the web. Crazy right? Kinda like microsoft thinking the internet wasn't going to be a big deal.

It turns out the business customers that love RIMs messaging also want to be able to watch youtube videos of cats sent to them by their kids. A lot. And thus, with RIM not offering a credible browser, until now.

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